Update results.md

bnvulpe · Nov 22, 2024 · 229d7c4 · 229d7c4
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 - **Topic Evolution Heatmap**:  
     The intensity of cells reflects the prominence of each topic during specific time slices, enabling a clear visualization of how topics evolve over time. This highlights shifts in focus and reveals time-dependent changes. By examining the keywords associated with each topic, we can contextualize its theme and track how it responds to external factors, such as events or trends. 
 
-    ![](visualizations/topic_evolution_heatmap.png)
+    ![topic evolution heatmap](visualizations/topic_evolution_heatmap.png)
 
 
 ### 2. **Time Series-Support Score Analysis**
-   Add tables of metrics/technique results calculates and plots.
+   - **Trump-Biden Period**:  
+
+      ![Trump-Biden Period support](visualizations/trump_biden_support.png)
+
+   - Trump support prediction with AR(1), AIC	-151.173, BIC	-145.753, HQIC	-149.153
+
+      ![Trump support prediction with AR(1)](visualizations/trump_biden_support_forecasting.png)
+
+   - Biden support prediction with MA(1), AIC	-126.029, BIC	-120.609, HQIC	-124.009
+
+      ![Biden support prediction with MA(1)](visualizations/biden_support_forecasting.png)
+
+
+
+   - **Trump-Harris Period**:
+
+      ![Trump-Harris Period support](visualizations/trump_harris_support.png)
+
+   - Trump support prediction with AR(1), AIC	-296.153, BIC	-288.523, HQIC	-293.071
+
+      ![Trump support prediction with AR(1)](visualizations/trump_harris_support_forecasting.png)
+
+   - Harris support decomposed for seasonality check, period = 30 
+
+      ![Harris support decomposed](visualizations/harris_seasonal_descompose.png)
+
+
+   - Harris support prediction with ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,0,1)[30] model, AIC	-240.721, BIC	-230.548, HQIC	-236.612
+
+      ![Harris support prediction with AR(1)](visualizations/harris_support_forecasting.png)
+
+   - **Suport difference between Trump and Biden and Trump and Harris**:
+
+      ![Support difference](visualizations/support_differences.png)
+
+   - **Support difference prediction between Trump and Biden**:
+
+   - Support difference prediction with ARIMA(0,1,2) model, AIC	-107.668, BIC	-100.532, HQIC	-105.022
+
+      ![Support difference prediction](visualizations/diff_trump_biden_forecasting.png)
+
+   - **Support difference prediction between Trump and Harris**:
+
+   - Support difference prediction with AR(1), AIC	-190.973, BIC	-183.343, HQIC	-187.891
+
+      ![Support difference prediction](visualizations/diff_trump_harris_forecasting.png)  
+
 
 
 ### 3. **Correlation with Polls, Google Trends and Sentiment**
-   Add tables of metrics/technique results calculates and plots.
-   Every possible combination of polling data or search interest with sentiment was analyzed:
-   - **Trump-Biden Period**: 
-      - Polls (Trump) with sentiment for Trump and Biden individually, and combined.
-      - Polls (Biden) with sentiment for Trump, Biden, and their combination.
-   - **Trump-Harris Period**: 
-      - Polls (Trump) with sentiment for Trump and Harris individually, and combined.
-      - Polls (Harris) with sentiment for Trump, Harris, and their combination.  
-   - The same combinations were repeated for Google search interest data.  
+   Every possible combination of polling data or search interest with support score was analyzed:
+   - **Sentiment as exogenous variable for polls**:
+      - Trump polls on Biden period:
+         - Trump love as exogenous coefficient: **0.0179**
+         - Biden love as exogenous coefficient: **-0.0008**
+         - Biden and Trump love as exogenous coefficients: **-0.0009**, **0.0174**
+       - Biden polls:
+         - Trump love as exogenous coefficient: **-0.0047**
+         - Biden love as exogenous coefficient: **0.0024**
+         - Biden and Trump love as exogenous coefficients: **0.0026**, **-0.0049**
+       - Trump polls on Harris period:
+         - Trump love as exogenous coefficient: **0.0017**
+         - Harris love as exogenous coefficient: **-0.0006**
+         - Harris and Trump love as exogenous coefficients: **-0.0005**, **0.0017**
+       - Harris polls:
+         - Trump love as exogenous coefficient: **-0.0052**
+         - Harris love as exogenous coefficient: **0.0011**
+         - Harris and Trump love as exogenous coefficients: **0.0013**, **-0.0059**
+   - **Setiment as exogenous variable for google searches**:
+     - Trump google searches on Biden period:
+       - Trump love as exogenous coefficient: **-0.7114**
+       - Biden love as exogenous coefficient: **0.0767**
+       - Biden and Trump love as exogenous coefficients: **0.0291**, **-0.6402**
+     - Biden google searches:
+       - Trump love as exogenous coefficient: **-0.1842**
+       - Biden love as exogenous coefficient: **0.0066**
+       - Biden and Trump love as exogenous coefficients: **0.0155**, **-0.1861**
+     - Trump google searches on Harris period: 
+       - Trump love as exogenous coefficient: **-0.0711**
+       - Harris love as exogenous coefficient: **0.0265**
+       - Harris and Trump love as exogenous coefficients: **0.0262**, **-0.0710**
+     - Harris google searches:
+       - Trump love as exogenous coefficient: **-0.0713**
+       - Harris love as exogenous coefficient: **0.0617**
+       - Harris and Trump love as exogenous coefficients: **0.0613**, **-0.0713**
+