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Analysis of Massachusetts city and town level COVID-19 case data

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MA_COVID-19

This repository is for analyzing and visualizing COVID-19 data for the state of Massachusetts, with a particular focus on municipality (city or town) data and the Worcester area.

Statewide, weekly COVID-19 case and rate data have been pulled from the MA COVID-19 dashboard (https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting#covid-19-cases-by-city/town-). These files names are of the format covid-19-city-town-M-DD-YYYY.txt and data are tab-delimitted files.

Scripts for plotting weekly Massachusetts city/town data are provided in the following R scripts: MA_city_COVID_plots.R

Higher resolution case data is also provided for Worcester and surrounding towns (Grafton, Holden, Lecesiter, Millbury, and Shrewsbury) by scraping data from daily announcement from the city of Worcester, avaiable here: http://www.worcesterma.gov/announcements Text from these webpages are manually concatenated together in the file all_Worcester_COVID_announcements.txt and case numbers are parsed with the script parse_city_data.pl into individual, tab-delimited files for each city (file name format: NNNNNNNN_city.tsv). Data for West Boylston are compiled manually from announements posted here: https://www.westboylston-ma.gov/home/news/town-administrator-covid-19-updates

Scripts for plotting of Worcester area COVID-19 data are provided in the the following R scripts:

Worcester_COVID.R plots cumulative case numbers and daily new cases/day MA_city_town_weekly_rates.R processes and plots weekly COVID-19 data for total case load and daily new cases for each municipality in the state

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The following plot shows the 'current' (as of the date shown) case load per 100,000 people in each municipality in Massachusetts. Plots generated by R script MA_city_town_weekly_rates.R using weekly data provided at mass.gov. Color breaks depict 5%, 25%, 75%, and 95% percentiles.

MA municipality COVID-19 case load

Plot of the estimated daily new COVID-19 rate per 100,000 people for each municipality in the state, based on a linear regression of the last 3 dates of weekly data. Color breaks depict 5%, 25%, 75%, and 95% percentiles.

MA municipality COVID-19 daily new case rate per 100,000 people

Worcester area analyses

Worcester and MA COVID-19 daily new cases

Plot showing daily new cases normalized to population for the city of Worcester. Note that the jump in the number of cases at the begining of June is not 'real' spike in cases, but an anomaly in how cases were reported and parsed.

Cumulative case numbers and new daily cases/day over time for Worcester

Yellow points represent Sundays.

Worcester COVID-19 daily new cases and hospitalizations

Seven day means for COVID-19 daily new cases and COVID-19 positive hospitalizations (all combined medical facilities of Saint Vincent Hospital and UMass Memorial Health) in Worcester, MA. Yellow points represent Sundays.

Worcester COVID-19 daily new cases and deaths

COVID-19 daily new cases and daily new COVID-19 related deaths in all combined medical facilities of Saint Vincent Hospital and UMass Memorial Health) in Worcester, MA. Yellow points represent Sundays.

Worcester_area_cities_COVID_plots.R --> plots cumulative case numbers for Worcester and surrounding cities

Cumulative case numbers over time for Worcester and surrounding cities

Plot of population density vs. current COVID-19 cases per capita for Worcester and surrounding cities

Worcester county was lagging initially the timing and strength of decline in new daily COVID-19 cases and deaths compared to other counties and the state as a whole, but in the last few

s has dropped down to levels similar to other counties.

Worcester county daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths, 7 day average

Suffolk county daily new COVID-19 cases, 7 day average

Middlesex county daily new COVID-19 cases, 7 day average

The same initial lag in decline also occurs for COVID-19 related deaths for Worcester county (needs to be updated).

Worcester county daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths, 7 day average

Suffolk county daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths, 7 day average

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