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This project tests the hypothesis that signals in the form of sentiment from newspaper text can be used to materially improve the forecasts of macroeconomic variables including infaltion, GDP and unemployment rate. Our news corpus is drawn from GDELT database which contains news from all popular US newspapers. A financial sentiment model trained…

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mustafashabbir10/Predicting_Economic_Growth

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Predicting Economic Growth from Business News

The main goal of this project to investigate if sentiment from newspaper can be useful in predicting macroeocnomics variables (unemployment rate, GDP, and CPI).

There are three steps in running the result:

  1. Data Creation and Model Training: project_create_data.ipynb; Shallow_ML_Models/Shallow_ML_Models.ipynb; LSTM_Model/LSTM_model.py

    It will first create the data, and then traing the shallow ML model and also the Bi-LSTM model

  2. Sentiment Scoring: project_sentiment_scoring.ipynb OR project_sentiment_scoring.py

    This will count the number of article that have a positive/neutral/negative sentiment predicted by each model

  3. Macroeconomics Forecasting: project_macro_model.ipynb

    This will fit the macroeconomics variables with different model: the benchmark, and with various sentiment scores.

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This project tests the hypothesis that signals in the form of sentiment from newspaper text can be used to materially improve the forecasts of macroeconomic variables including infaltion, GDP and unemployment rate. Our news corpus is drawn from GDELT database which contains news from all popular US newspapers. A financial sentiment model trained…

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