Recently inflation is a popular topic in Poland and is highest since the 90s. Experts presume inflation in Poland should continue to rise. The time series forecasting was completed by implementing the autoregressive methods.
- New update for March 2024. Inflation values were forecasted with deep learning: CNN & LSTM. The out-of sample predictions confirm that Polish inflation will continue to fall. Based on evaluation metrics and model residuals, the CNN is a better choice.
| RMSE | R2 | MAE | MAPE [%] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN | 0.4008 | 0.9892 | 0.3012 | 0.1753 |
| LSTM | 0.4957 | 0.9835 | 0.3736 | 0.2218 |
- New update for March 2023.
- The November 2022 is an updated and much fresher version of the forecast. It contains a SARIMA implementation.
- The earlier notebook (December 2021) describes the ARIMA method (without seasonality order). The notebook contains factual errors both in code and description.