COVID-19 Simulation Project

Discrete simulation analysis of COVID-19 and prediction of isolation bed numbers

Prerequisites

-JDK 1.8

Tested on:

*windows 10 Home, IntelliJ IDEA 2019.3.4. We recommend the operating environment like these: Microsoft Windows 10/8/7/Vista/2003/XP (incl.64), 1 GB RAM minimum, 2 GB RAM recommended, 300 MB hard disk space + at least 1 G for caches, 1920×1080 minimum screen resolution, JDK 1.8.

Usage

Step1: Adjust the parameters in "Constants.java"

This is a file containing some basic parameters, which can be changed to achieve epidemic simulation under different conditions.

Step2: Run program

src/Main.java

Step3: Get result

After closing or minifying the program interface, there is a '.csv' file which named by the corresponding run time of the results in the folder of this program. Each column shows the statistics for different time nodes.

• CITY_PERSON_SIZE shows the population of the city,
• NORMAL shows the scale of healthy people,
• SHADOW shows the scale of population in the incubation period,
• SUPER shows the scale of population in the super incubation period,
• CONFIRMED shows the scale of population have suspected symptoms,
• DIAGNOSIS shows the scale of population have been confirmed to be infected by the hospital,
• FREEZE shows the scale of population been isolated at the hospital,
• CURED shows the scale of population been cured,
• shadow_average shows the average incubation period in the population,
• shadow_std shows the incubation period's standard deviation in the population,
• shadow_max shows the longest incubation period in the population,
• shadow_min shows the shortest incubation period in the population,
• real_countTmp shows the scale of population actually diagnosed and isolated every record time,
• max_count shows the cumulative number of population actually diagnosed and isolated,
• count_shadow_average shows the average incubation period on the day of the maximum number of population actually diagnosed and isolated,
• count_shadow_std shows the incubation period's standard deviation on the day of the maximum number of population actually diagnosed and isolated,
• count_shadow_max shows the longest incubation period on the day of the maximum number of population actually diagnosed and isolated,
• count_shadow_min shows the shortest incubation period on the day of the maximum number of population actually diagnosed and isolated,
• sum_confirmed_mark shows the cumulative number of person have suspected symptoms,
• sum_diagnosis_mark shows the cumulative number of person confirmed to be infected ,
• sum_freeze_mark shows the cumulative number of person isolated,
• r0 shows the scale of the original patients,
• G1num shows the scale of the first generation of infectious patients,
• G2num shows the scale of the second generation of infectious patients,
• G3Num shows the scale of the third generation of infectious patients,
• G4Num shows the scale of the fourth generation of infectious patients,
• G5Num shows the scale of the fifth generation of infectious patients,
• BED_CanUse shows the scale of bed can be used,
• BED_Need shows the scale of bed in need,
• DEATH shows the scale of died people,
• worldTime(Day) shows the time in the simulation model when record the row,
• recordTime shows the real world time when record the row.

More details are in our article.

The article is under review currently, we will give more explanation in the source code after being received.

Authors:

Xinyu Li(#) , Yufeng Cai(#) , Yinghe Ding , Jiada Li , Ye Liang*, Linyong Xu*

*Corresponding Author: Ye Liang , Linyong Xu

#Xinyu Li and Yufeng Cai are co-first authors on this work