- Verificar o indicativo da presença da convergência do valor adicionado bruto per capita do setor agropecuário nos municípios do estado do Ceará.
- Analisar a forma como o VAB per capita do setor agropecuário está distribuído espacialmente nos municípios do estado do Ceará no período de análise;
- Checar a existência de autocorrelação espacial local e global por intermédio de uma Análise Exploratória de Dados Espaciais;
- Verificar através da estimação de convergência-β absoluta se há redução das disparidades regionais tendo em vista o longo termo do período analisado.
MODELO MÍNIMOS QUADRADOS ORDINÁRIOS
SUMMARY OF OUTPUT: ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
Data set : CE_Municipios_2022
Dependent Variable : ln_VA_0220 Number of Observations: 184
Mean dependent var : 0,108216 Number of Variables : 2
S.D. dependent var : 0,500667 Degrees of Freedom : 182
R-squared : 0,043423 F-statistic : 8,26168
Adjusted R-squared : 0,038167 Prob(F-statistic) : 0,00453141
Sum squared residual: 44,12 Log likelihood : -129,707
Sigma-square : 0,242418 Akaike info criterion : 263,413
S.E. of regression : 0,492359 Schwarz criterion : 269,843
Sigma-square ML : 0,239783
S.E of regression ML: 0,489676
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Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Probability
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CONSTANT 1,06123 0,333545 3,18169 0,00172
ln_VAPC_02 -0,147327 0,0512563 -2,87431 0,00453
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REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS
MULTICOLLINEARITY CONDITION NUMBER 18,323949
TEST ON NORMALITY OF ERRORS
TEST DF VALUE PROB
Jarque-Bera 2 0,8197 0,66377
DIAGNOSTICS FOR HETEROSKEDASTICITY
RANDOM COEFFICIENTS
TEST DF VALUE PROB
Breusch-Pagan test 1 1,6123 0,20416
Koenker-Bassett test 1 1,5670 0,21065
DIAGNOSTICS FOR SPATIAL DEPENDENCE
FOR WEIGHT MATRIX : CE_Municipios_2022
(row-standardized weights)
TEST MI/DF VALUE PROB
Moran's I (error) 0,2518 5,6648 0,00000
Lagrange Multiplier (lag) 1 25,0526 0,00000
Robust LM (lag) 1 3,3794 0,06601
Lagrange Multiplier (error) 1 29,0749 0,00000
Robust LM (error) 1 7,4017 0,00652
Lagrange Multiplier (SARMA) 2 32,4543 0,00000
MODELO DO ERRO ESPACIAL (SEM)
SUMMARY OF OUTPUT: SPATIAL ERROR MODEL - MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
Data set : CE_Municipios_2022
Spatial Weight : CE_Municipios_2022
Dependent Variable : ln_VA_0220 Number of Observations: 184
Mean dependent var : 0,108216 Number of Variables : 2
S.D. dependent var : 0,500667 Degrees of Freedom : 182
Lag coeff. (Lambda) : 0,488882
R-squared : 0,208115 R-squared (BUSE) : -
Sq. Correlation : - Log likelihood : -117,103040
Sigma-square : 0,1985 Akaike info criterion : 238,206
S.E of regression : 0,445533 Schwarz criterion : 244,636
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Variable Coefficient Std.Error z-value Probability
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CONSTANT 1,34454 0,360404 3,73064 0,00019
ln_VAPC_02 -0,196857 0,0547365 -3,59644 0,00032
LAMBDA 0,488882 0,0853188 5,73007 0,00000
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REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS
DIAGNOSTICS FOR HETEROSKEDASTICITY
RANDOM COEFFICIENTS
TEST DF VALUE PROB
Breusch-Pagan test 1 0,5981 0,43929
DIAGNOSTICS FOR SPATIAL DEPENDENCE
SPATIAL ERROR DEPENDENCE FOR WEIGHT MATRIX : CE_Municipios_2022
TEST DF VALUE PROB
Likelihood Ratio Test 1 25,2074 0,00000
MODELO DE DEFASAGEM ESPACIAL (SAR)
SUMMARY OF OUTPUT: SPATIAL LAG MODEL - MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION
Data set : CE_Municipios_2022
Spatial Weight : CE_Municipios_2022
Dependent Variable : ln_VA_0220 Number of Observations: 184
Mean dependent var : 0,108216 Number of Variables : 3
S.D. dependent var : 0,500667 Degrees of Freedom : 181
Lag coeff. (Rho) : 0,459163
R-squared : 0,188289 Log likelihood : -118,753
Sq. Correlation : - Akaike info criterion : 243,506
Sigma-square : 0,20347 Schwarz criterion : 253,15
S.E of regression : 0,451076
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Variable Coefficient Std.Error z-value Probability
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W_ln_VA_0220 0,459163 0,0862274 5,32502 0,00000
CONSTANT 0,965818 0,311622 3,09933 0,00194
ln_VAPC_02 -0,143158 0,0477077 -3,00072 0,00269
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REGRESSION DIAGNOSTICS
DIAGNOSTICS FOR HETEROSKEDASTICITY
RANDOM COEFFICIENTS
TEST DF VALUE PROB
Breusch-Pagan test 1 0,7172 0,39707
DIAGNOSTICS FOR SPATIAL DEPENDENCE
SPATIAL LAG DEPENDENCE FOR WEIGHT MATRIX : CE_Municipios_2022
TEST DF VALUE PROB
Likelihood Ratio Test 1 21,9079 0,00000