Merge pull request #345 from PSLmodels/examination-2022

Add 2022 US and selected states examination results

tmd/examination/2022/dbtab.sql

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+-- tabulate iitax component results using only PUF records:
+SELECT
+    round(sum(s006*e00200)*1e-9, 3),  -- wage and salary (ALL)
+    round(sum(s006*e00600)*1e-9, 3),  -- ordinary dividends
+    round(sum(s006*e00900)*1e-9, 3),  -- Sch C net business income
+    round(sum(s006*e02000)*1e-9, 3),  -- rent,partnership,S-Corp income (Sch E)
+    round(sum(s006*e02300)*1e-9, 3),  -- unemployment compensation
+    round(sum(s006*c02500)*1e-9, 3),  -- taxable social security benefits
+    round(sum(s006*c00100)*1e-9, 3),  -- adjusted gross income (AGI)
+    round(sum(s006*c04800)*1e-9, 3),  -- taxable income
+    round(sum(s006*refund)*1e-9, 3)   -- refundable credits
+    --round(sum(s006*iitax)*1e-9, 3)  -- total iitax liability (after credits)
+  FROM baseline
+  WHERE data_source = 1;
+SELECT
+    round(sum(s006*iitax)*1e-9, 3)    -- total POSITIVE iitax liability
+FROM baseline
+WHERE data_source = 1
+  AND iitax >= 0;
+
+
+-- USING TC_OPTIONS="--exact --dump --dvars outvars --sqldb"
+-- 2022 US targets from SOI Bulletin (Spring 2024) in $B:
+-- < https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/soi-a-inpre-id2401.pdf >
+--                             SOI        TMD   (TMD/SOI-1)*100(%)
+--: wage_and_salary       9648.553   9654.475   +0.1
+--: ordin_dividends        420.403    420.299   -0.0
+--: SchC_net_income        395.136    396.303   +0.3
+--: SchE_part_Scorp       1108.445   1114.474   +0.5
+--: unemploy_compen         29.554     29.909   +1.2
+--: taxable_soc_sec        471.017    473.755   +0.6
+--: adj_gross_income     15142.763  14851.081   -1.9
+--: taxable_income       11954.522  11842.505   -0.9
+--: refundable_credits     106.380    116.717   +9.7
+--: itax_after_credits    2285.496   2289.792   +0.2
+--
+-- % awk '$1~/--:/{print 100*($4/$3-1)}' dbtab-by-component.sql
+-- 0.0613771
+-- -0.0247382
+-- 0.295341
+-- 0.543915
+-- 1.20119
+-- 0.581295
+-- -1.92621
+-- -0.937026
+-- 9.71705
+-- 0.187968

tmd/examination/2022/generate_tmd_results.sh

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+# The examination/2022/generate_tmd_results.sh script.
+# PREREQUISITE:
+#   (taxcalc-dev) tax-microdata-benchmarking% make test
+# USAGE:
+#   (taxcalc-dev) 2022% ./generate_tmd_results.sh
+
+# === SETUP ===
+TMD=../..
+cp $TMD/storage/output/tmd*csv* .
+gunzip -f tmd.csv.gz
+STATES="ak mn nj nm sc va"
+
+# === WEIGHTS ===
+for S in $STATES; do
+    echo Generating weights for $S ...
+    unzip -oq phase6-state-targets.zip ${S}_targets.csv
+    mv -f ${S}_targets.csv $TMD/areas/targets
+    pushd $TMD/areas > /dev/null
+        rm -f weights/${S}_tmd_weights.csv.gz
+        python create_area_weights.py $S > ${S}_local.log
+        mv -f ${S}_local.log ../examination/2022
+        mv -f weights/${S}_tmd_weights.csv.gz ../examination/2022
+    popd > /dev/null
+    awk -f log_extract.awk ${S}_local.log
+done
+
+# === RESULTS ===
+cd $TMD/examination/2022
+TC_OPTIONS="--exact --dump --dvars outvars --sqldb"
+echo Generating results for US ...
+tc tmd.csv 2022 $TC_OPTIONS | grep -v data
+sqlite3 tmd-22-#-#-#.db < dbtab.sql
+for S in $STATES; do
+    echo Generating results for $S ...
+    TMD_AREA=$S tc tmd.csv 2022 $TC_OPTIONS | grep -v data
+    sqlite3 tmd_${S}-22-#-#-#.db < dbtab.sql
+done
+
+# === CLEANUP ===
+rm -f ./*tmd*csv*
+rm -f ./tmd*-22-*
+rm -f ./*.log
+exit 0
+
+
+# WE HAVE THESE RESULTS ON 2025-01-16:
+#
+# (taxcalc-dev) 2022% time ./generate_tmd_results.sh
+# Generating weights for ak ...
+#   ::loop,delta,misses,exectime(secs):   1   1.000000e-09   0   401.1
+# DISTRIBUTION OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIOS (n=146):
+#   with REGULARIZATION_DELTA= 1.000000e-09
+# low bin ratio    high bin ratio    bin #    cum #     bin %     cum %
+# >=     0.996000, <     1.004000:     146      146   100.00%   100.00%
+# MINIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 0.998
+# MAXIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 1.001
+# Generating weights for mn ...
+#   ::loop,delta,misses,exectime(secs):   1   1.000000e-09   0   240.2
+# DISTRIBUTION OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIOS (n=147):
+#   with REGULARIZATION_DELTA= 1.000000e-09
+# low bin ratio    high bin ratio    bin #    cum #     bin %     cum %
+# >=     0.996000, <     1.004000:     147      147   100.00%   100.00%
+# MINIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 0.999
+# MAXIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 1.001
+# Generating weights for nj ...
+#   ::loop,delta,misses,exectime(secs):   1   1.000000e-09   0   180.3
+# DISTRIBUTION OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIOS (n=147):
+#   with REGULARIZATION_DELTA= 1.000000e-09
+# low bin ratio    high bin ratio    bin #    cum #     bin %     cum %
+# >=     0.996000, <     1.004000:     147      147   100.00%   100.00%
+# MINIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 0.999
+# MAXIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 1.000
+# Generating weights for nm ...
+#   ::loop,delta,misses,exectime(secs):   1   1.000000e-09   0   168.4
+# DISTRIBUTION OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIOS (n=147):
+#   with REGULARIZATION_DELTA= 1.000000e-09
+# low bin ratio    high bin ratio    bin #    cum #     bin %     cum %
+# >=     0.996000, <     1.004000:     147      147   100.00%   100.00%
+# MINIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 1.000
+# MAXIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 1.001
+# Generating weights for sc ...
+#   ::loop,delta,misses,exectime(secs):   1   1.000000e-09   0   231.2
+# DISTRIBUTION OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIOS (n=147):
+#   with REGULARIZATION_DELTA= 1.000000e-09
+# low bin ratio    high bin ratio    bin #    cum #     bin %     cum %
+# >=     0.996000, <     1.004000:     147      147   100.00%   100.00%
+# MINIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 0.999
+# MAXIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 1.000
+# Generating weights for va ...
+#   ::loop,delta,misses,exectime(secs):   1   1.000000e-09   2   456.7
+# DISTRIBUTION OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIOS (n=147):
+#   with REGULARIZATION_DELTA= 1.000000e-09
+# low bin ratio    high bin ratio    bin #    cum #     bin %     cum %
+# >=     0.900000, <     0.990000:       1        1     0.68%     0.68%
+# >=     0.990000, <     0.996000:       0        1     0.00%     0.68%
+# >=     0.996000, <     1.004000:     145      146    98.64%    99.32%
+# >=     1.004000, <     1.010000:       0      146     0.00%    99.32%
+# >=     1.010000, <     1.100000:       1      147     0.68%   100.00%
+# MINIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 0.948
+# MAXIMUM VALUE OF TARGET ACT/EXP RATIO = 1.050
+# Generating results for US ...
+# 9654.475|420.299|396.303|1114.474|29.909|473.755|14851.081|11842.505|116.717
+# 2289.792
+# Generating results for ak ...
+# 19.843|0.554|0.607|1.911|0.109|0.906|29.261|22.975|0.217
+# 3.796
+# Generating results for mn ...
+# 179.963|6.321|6.362|20.908|0.71|9.72|267.728|212.373|1.392
+# 38.722
+# Generating results for nj ...
+# 346.77|16.023|10.934|32.693|1.049|16.227|506.593|415.249|2.642
+# 82.935
+# Generating results for nm ...
+# 41.203|1.354|2.04|3.184|0.199|2.932|63.316|46.637|0.947
+# 7.416
+# Generating results for sc ...
+# 119.387|3.966|4.309|14.67|0.429|8.407|185.522|141.508|2.133
+# 24.706
+# Generating results for va ...
+# 276.779|10.304|8.814|28.721|0.767|13.378|408.918|327.695|2.597
+# 61.405
+# ./generate_tmd_results.sh  6396.15s user 93.15s system 310% cpu 34:52.81 total

tmd/examination/2022/log_extract.awk

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+$1~/::loop/{scan=1; print $0; next}
+$0~/final delta loop iterations/{print $0; next}
+$1~/message:/{print $0; next}
+scan==1 && $0~/DISTRIBUTION OF TARGET/{prnt=1}
+scan==1 && $0~/AREA-OPTIMIZED/{prnt=0}
+prnt==1{print $0}

tmd/examination/2022/outvars

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+e00200
+e00600
+e00900
+e02000
+e02300
+c02500
+c00100
+c04800
+refund
+iitax
+s006
+data_source

tmd/examination/2022/results.md

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+Phase 6 National and Selected State Data Examination Results
+============================================================
+
+**RESULTS AS OF 2025-01-16**
+
+In the table below, Phase 6 US and selected state TMD estimates for
+2022 are compared with IRS/SOI tabulations of 2022 sampled income tax
+returns.  See the Sources section below the table for details on the
+TMD and IRS/SOI estimates.
+
+<br>
+
+**CY2022 Total Income Tax Liability** ($ billion)<br>
+| Area |     TMD  |      SOI | PctDiff |
+| ---: |     ---: |     ---: |    ---: |
+| US   | 2289.792 | 2250.798 |    +1.7 |
+|      |          |          |         |
+| AK   |    3.796 |    4.114 |    -7.7 |
+| MN   |   38.722 |   37.221 |    +4.0 |
+| NJ   |   82.935 |   84.148 |    -1.4 |
+| NM   |    7.416 |    7.840 |    -5.4 |
+| SC   |   24.706 |   25.518 |    -3.2 |
+| VA   |   61.405 |   61.516 |    -0.2 |
+
+<br>
+
+**Sources**:
+
+The 2022 TMD estimates are generated by the
+[`generate_tmd_results.sh`](./generate_tmd_results.sh) script.
+
+The SOI estimates are taken directly from the "All returns" "Total tax
+liability: Amount" cell (row 157, column B) in the [Tax Year 2022:
+Historic Table 2 (SOI Bulletin) XSLX
+files](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-historic-table-2).